World News – AU – Cox Plate Form Guide: Best Bet & Best Value of Every Race in Moonee Valley

Our expert combed the terrain at every race on Cox Plate Day and found the safest bet – and the best value racer

Cox Plate Day has arrived to lift the spirits of Victoria and the rest of the country – but it’s not just Australia’s first weight-for-age competition that is garnering maximum interest

Check out expert advice from comau punters for Races 1-10 in Moonee Valley below, or read our full runner-by-runner guide to the big one here

Ancestry (2) is hard to advise against having won 5 of his last 6 outings He fell 1,200m to 1,000m in second and made it home to Cranbourne, beating the practice Parsifal by 325L, with Vainstream 5L ahead of winner 3rd A repeat of this would see him be extremely hard to beat He’s 2 of 3 on heavy, so rain is not a problem

Jungle Edge (1) drew inside Ancestry and can put this runner to work a little earlier He has a surprisingly weak record here at The Valley (8: 0-2-0)

The Centaurian (4) didn’t beat a home runner in two points in the last preparation, but he’s better than that He won well here with three backstrokes and is 2 of 2 in heavyweight, if the track is really wet

Free Of Debt (7) will need a lot of luck from the inner gate as it will definitely be passed through early Its best is good enough if it sees a clear run

With 1000 races to start this weekend, I’m happy to support this one

Bella Nipotina (7) sat outside the leader and dominated by winning Caulfield with three backs, before finding the pace and class a bit rich in the G1 Moir Stakes (1000m) She was solid back in last year behind a few smart ones at Swats That and Muntaseera A wet track is not a hit

Valaquenta (1) is likely to spot his rivals starting from the outer lane, but he’s 1-in-1 here and his two runs this campaign read well for that

Portland Sky (5) drew to follow the leader – probably Mildred – so Melham might have to do a little bump to get exposed He was better than Valaquenta in the same race at the last start

Free To Move (2) won well on this road at the last start and there is no reason why it cannot improve again in third position

Ecumenical (2) was huge on the last start of the G1 Thousand Guineas (1600m), traveling wide homeless throughout Despite the tough run, the filly Huxtable kept kicking down the straight to get place 4th Provided she got this run in the right order, she should take a lot of hits over the same distance here.Once again, she’s widely shot which is probably the main shot

The thermosphere (1) was not as good as the last ecumenical start, but it sits well from the third barrier She won her only start on a heavy track and also won the G3 Magic Night Stakes (1200m) on a Soft 6

Miss Inbetween (3) will likely lead barrier four Her four efforts for this campaign have been solid and her fitness should take her very far if it is a testing surface

Incredulous Dream (4) might look a little negative in the first barrier, but she did well at Caulfield on the last start

I Am Eloquent (11) hasn’t shown much this campaign, but could be topped at $ 21 She’ll likely head forward to run outside the likely leader Greysful Glamor struggling on tracks very humid This mare loves the wet, recording dominant wins in just two heavy starts.She needs some lifting but is open to a big improvement in third (the best races of last spring came when the third and fourth climbs)

Paradee (10) had a strange preparation, running first over 1400m on August 29th before not running again until October 14th She was good last start but just lacked that late killer edge She should strip a lot more fit here but her best runs are on dry ground She endured a tough run when she was beaten on a Heavy 8

Sovereign Award (3) won her last couple on this track / distance She’s incredibly consistent, finishing in the top two in 10 of her 15 starts, and usually makes her own luck at speed

Bonvicini (5) will probably see his rivals a start but seems to cry for this trip

VERDICT: Open race, so happy to have something small on I Am Eloquent (11) at $ 21 (he needs it really wet though)

Young Werther (6) had the misfortune of not winning at Flemington at the last start separating Khoekhoe and Albarado The latter have since won so the form should pile up here The climb from 1800m to 2040m looks ideal in third position and he maps to have every possible chance He should win that on the way to the Derby Cherry Tortoni (3) was poor at the last start from Sydney, but his effort here before in the G2 Stutt Stakes (1600m) was excellent There was also a lot to like about his first effort so we can probably forgive his flop Spring Champion (2000m) He won 3 of 4 on rain affected ground Khoekhoe (1) beat Young Werther on the last start He received a better race than the finalist but it was still a great victory The barrier means he will probably have to overtake the first choice here Johnny Get Angry (7) shows promise and will devour 2040m VERDICT: Young Werther (6) for victory

Kings Will Dream (2) finished 10th in the last start of the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) but was only beaten by 25L He was hampered in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) before that, so his form is a little better than it looks on paper He doesn’t want heavy stuff but can win if the track is a Soft 6

Homesman (1) won last year’s G2 Feehan Stakes at this track / distance His form since has been mixed, but he’s a quality runner when he’s right and he generally performs well when he’s is fresh (6: 2-2-0) It was only 2L from Verry Elleegant on this trip for two

Dr Drill (5) likes to give in to the ground and charting for a smooth run behind the leaders He’ll need some luck from there, but he’s placed in his two runs here at The Valley and deserves a change of luck (lame with two backs and without hope of recovery)

Olmedo (4) has a stack of gear changes and enters these three barrier events Bets can tell the story with him

Shared Ambition (4) was good without a whole lot of luck at Flemington’s last start Williams gave him a pretty old task (giving the Persian winner 35kg) and the effort says He finished a length of Steel Prince, who won the Geelong Cup (2,400m) on Wednesday Although his heavyweight record was no flash (3: 0-0-1), he had genuine apologies in two of those races He has 3 out of 4 out of soft

Sound (7) beat House Shared Ambition on the last start and this campaign is going really well. He’s struggling to win these days, but he was only narrowly refused here and gets the services of ‘a very fit Mark Zahra

Gallic Chieftain (1) isn’t the easiest horse to catch on the punt, but his last-start effort in the G2 Herbert Power (2400m) was good enough to be competitive in what he already has. won here and should be close to fourth place

Supergirl (13) could be the one to throw in the $ 34 quaddie She was stiff not to win over 2400m at Caulfield’s last start after having had no luck in the G3 Bart Cummings (2510m) when monster odds She won on a first in Heavy 8

The Russian Camelot (11) saw his colors lowered at the last start, finishing 125L off Arcadia Queen at $ 1.40F in the G1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m) However, the sit-and-sprint nature of this race didn’t really fit, and you could tell Pike on Arcadia Queen surprised Oliver a bit in the straight Hopefully, for the sake of Russian Camelot, they really expand in there and he can build through his gears and have full steam around the tight final turn. Maybe he needs a little over 2040m now, but the likelihood of a wet track is a big plus considering what we saw in the G1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) on a Soft 6 to two fullbacks Barrier 15 doesn’t look great, but you’d rather see it outside of the riders rather than looking for trails inside

Probabeel (13) is just a model of consistency, finishing in the top two at 14 of her 18 career starts She dominated the G3 Ritchie Handicap (1400m) on two backs, before overcoming a wide race to overcome the G1 Epsom Handicap (1600m) comfortably It was a sensational win and although 2000m remains a bit of a question – especially a fast running 2000m – she charts for a fairly economical run from barrier two She doesn’t want her to be really wet, but a flexible platform not at all a problem McEvoy rode it seven times and never finished worse than 2nd His teammate Te Akau Shark came out of a similar setup to run 3rd in this event last year

Arcadia Queen (8) was back to her best last start, beating Russian Camelot by 125L in the G1 Caulfield Stakes (2000m) The bar plates peeled off from there and they stay here which is obviously a good sign her feet are in much better condition than they were in early spring The way the race went on the last start was fine with him, sitting in a small field before being torn apart with a tight turn You imagine this event will take place at a more authentic tempo, with the 3-year-olds ahead, and the threat of rain is negative You can’t rule her out on what she showed at Caulfield’s last departure

Armory (12) appears to be the internationals’ choice, placing 3rd behind Magical and Ghaiyyath in the Irish G1 Champion in that last start He was $ 67 there, so maybe it was a rush run, but that effort looks good enough to give it a real boost A genuinely wet track should be a question, but Sir Dragonet beat it comfortably enough with more weight when they faced off over that three-way distance. back He’s been a dominant winner on much shorter runs than this, so he certainly has a good kick Melham should put him in the right place at the sixth barrier

Very low-key (4) could be a powerful improver provided the interior is not absolute quicksand She was excellent in second to the smart Swats That here two backs before bumping into this runner again on the last departure from Caulfield She was poor there, going back to the field and costing herself any chance to run Forgive this race and she definitely has double-digit claims

Written Beauty (5) has the speed to get through the wide gate She was dominant winning over 1100m at Canterbury in first place on a good try and was a 6L winner in the second campaign of the last campaign She was beaten in her only start on a heavy track, but finished 3L with a lead of 3rd there

Maha (3) and Minhaaj (1) finished 2nd and 3rd respectively of this filly at Flemington at the last start Minhaaj gets blinkers for the first time here

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WS Cox Plate, Horse Racing, Winx