World News – United States – 2020 Presidential Election Final Analysis & Projections – Insider NJ


Disclosure: I am a Registered Democrat and have served as a State Assembly and Hudson County Freedom Holder I ran for Jersey City Hall City, unsuccessful, far too many times – five

These experiences gave me a unique insight into the science of polling Over the years, as a blogger, I have successfully predicted the results of the last presidential and national midterm elections Some of the pollsters who work for the presidential candidates – past and present – cut their teeth in many New Jersey elections Joel Benenson [Hillary Clinton] and John McLaughlin [Trump] are two prominent pollsters I have known and used

My fascination with polls and my interest in political science is a hobby I love going online to polling sites that now make poll cross-tabs available, information that usually wasn’t offered years ago to the average Joe Real Clear Politics [RCP] website has virtually all the polls done and detailed crosstabs posted on the webpage An invaluable source I also use demographic information compiled by each state of our Union, which are also posted online This is a treasure trove of statistics useful for cross-checking polling station data, to see if the poll is correctly weighted – reflecting accurate demographic data on the composition of voters for the states polled

At this point, disregard poll results for horse racing numbers [who is ahead of whom in the election at any given time] from any polling station associated with media sources These crosstabs seem have a model – too many Democratic [DEM] participants and too few Republican [GOP] and Independent [IND] participants They do not conform to the actual electoral census of the states surveyed On average, there are up to 13 percentage points inaccuracy in the makeup of survey respondents based on party membership – which generally favors DEM respondents

Other notable problems in these polls indicate that they fail to survey suburban voters on specific demographics [age, sex, race, education, income], and that they are soliciting far too many voters  » registered ”to include polls, as opposed to“ probable ”voters

There is a reason to bias poll demographics: it produces a poll result with a desired result This is usually useful at the start of an election race, in order to give the impression that a candidate is running well and has a chance It is useful for fundraising a candidate and soliciting volunteers Many insiders refer to these polls as « introductory polls » These polls are not what a campaigner’s device is about. candidate would be based for his strategy

The campaign ploy for a presidential race is based on what is known as the internal poll and internal numbers This is the damn guarded information that the two campaigns are based on – key districts of counties in every state who have consistently voted in proportion to the good results of national elections, at least in the last four presidential elections These polls are extremely accurate and are what campaigns use to gauge their standing at any given point in the campaign.

Each polling company has its own methodology for determining which districts are selected to determine internal numbers Trump pollster John McLaughlin is the best in the industry at this strategy Trump’s campaign targets voter registration in the State where Trump must win The Trump campaign used this strategy in 2016 and helped achieve victories in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin These newly registered voters do not participate in any polls and usually vote for whoever registered them

Pay little attention to the overall numbers from the national horse racing polls, the results are worthless because they only calculate the popular vote, which states like California and New York can skew We elect presidents according to college methodology electoral, so pay attention only to the ballot numbers of the battlefield and the transitional state

The value of the national polls is to provide insight into how each demographic group polled feels about the state of the country and what is at stake in the election These results, as well as the conduct of the two presidential campaigns [ what they are talking about and where they are campaigning], will give you an accurate picture of the race situation and what the results of the candidate’s internal polls show.

Here’s some food for thought – an analysis of the poll to date: It should be noted that the polls indicate that Trump has a chance of breaking into the low double digits for black support [mostly made up of men under 60 years] A GOP record for a presidential candidate Trump also surpasses what he got in 2016 with Hispanic backing Trump also does much better with likely voters than with registered voters

Trump currently has a problem with most suburban women and with the elderly – they don’t like his behavior Because the behavior is a sympathy issue rather than a policy issue, Trump stands a slight chance to persuade some of those voters with a change of attitude This is why he dramatically altered his final debate strategy by not being so caustic Again, as most polls oversampled the DEMS more than respondents with affiliations to other parties, these factors should be taken into account

Trump’s two main drawbacks have been his handling of COVID-19 and his behavior His problem, right now, is that the race is totally about him His campaign must end with a focus on economic issues [polls indicate he’s doing best on economic issues, which overtake COVID-19 as the main issue] and turning the race into a referendum on Biden’s platform and its ethical loopholes now exhibited Time is running out

Biden’s campaign totally made the race a referendum on Trump and his handling of COVID-19, which is why they mainly attacked Trump’s behavior – the most unfavorable thing respondents cite about the president It also explains why Biden ran a relaxed campaign.When it comes to a referendum election on an incumbent with less than 50% favorability rating, you leave the candidate in the limelight Also, Biden does could not really campaign on other issues, because on issues such as health, environment and economy there is a wedge between the far left and moderate wings of the DEM party That’s why Biden rarely goes into detail – he doesn’t want to alienate voters from different specters in his party, as well as independent voters he needs to convince.

The events that will determine the final outcome of this election have yet to happen A small indecisive electorate – well under ten percent – can still rock a close election Favoring Biden is the fact that there are fewer voters undecided at this point in the electoral cycle than there were in 2016 With a third of the votes cast already, the votes are bigger with each passing day If Biden has a lead, then he wants to run without making waves

The next few days will tell us everything Factors taken into account: the candidate’s performance in the final presidential debate, the Biden & Son scandal, and Biden’s significant campaign finance advantage over Trumps There is also intangible factors at play in every election These influences will be uncovered after election day – when pollsters and experts do an autopsy of the 2020 election results

One of those intangible anomalies is an anomaly pollsters are still trying to figure out: Trump’s hidden vote These hidden voters lie to pollsters or don’t respond to pollsters at all This is what many pollsters attribute to why the polls were so far apart between Clinton and Trump in 2016 Very few polls proved this election right But this year their numbers may be lower, represented by the indecisive pool of voters at this Stadium

To flush out this vote, pollsters used other tactical questions in their polls, such as, « Who do you think will win the election? » Who do most of your friends and neighbors vote for? Are you better today than 4 years ago? Ironically, a majority of respondents, even those claiming a vote for Biden, responded to Trump for who they thought they won and for whom their friends and neighbors supported. The majority of respondents also acknowledged that they are better off today than they were four years ago

The answers to these questions are all recorded above the fifty-percentile threshold in polls The data is anecdotal at this point and can only become science after analysis of election results, but it could shed some light on the formula for understanding Trump’s hidden vote disguised in the polls

Another intangible: There is anecdotal information, apparent in the public arena, which could also serve as a clue to determining Trump’s hidden vote.The news media’s crushing disadvantage to the electorate – a negative note astonishing, on average, 83% Biden, overall, has become the media candidate in this election Media coverage of the campaign has been embarrassingly and obviously biased Even respondents who acknowledge their support for Biden admit it The country is united – they hate the stature of the national media Trump made the media his enemy – it helps him with voters

One final intangible: Other anecdotal information emerges from polls that have probed the subject: A significant number of respondents, including moderate DEMS, are embarrassed by the DEM’s flirtation with socialism Few polls have directly explored this key factor, but responses to other questions asked by respondents [such as the DEM party’s response to recent civil unrest] underscore this. One of the big issues with this campaign’s silent motivational vote

So what are the polls and campaigning telling us? In a nutshell: Trump cannot win elections without carrying the state of Florida Virtually every scenario with 270 electoral votes for Trump requires him to carry Florida

Beyond that, there are two other key states that Trump must also carry: Pennsylvania and Ohio If Trump wins in these states, he opens up a litany of scenarios and options for states of the Rust Belt and the Battlefield If Trump also puts North Carolina, Arizona and Wisconsin in his column, he should get his re-election If he captures Michigan and Minnesota, in addition to all the others States of the battlefield, Trump flirts with landslide in electoral college and captures popular vote

If Biden can’t stop Trump in Florida, he must stop Trump in three key states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin If Biden wins in this trio, Trump cannot win, despite wearing the Florida

Going into the final days of any election, Trump has what every candidate for office wants: momentum! Biden has what every candidate for office can never get enough of: money! My analysis predicts that Trump will be the winner, with a surprisingly larger margin than ever expected.If Trump leads the array of states noted in the previous analysis, the GOP will hold the Senate, possibly adding new members They will also close the gap at the Chamber, significantly

Biden hemorrhages in blacks, Hispanics and some moderate DEMS Another trivia: Trump polled attendees at his rallies – ten to twenty thousand attendees per event They find significant numbers of DEMS in his audiences This should be a worrying news for Biden That leaves him counting on younger, idealistic liberal voters to replace those who left the party But this demographic is the least likely to show up and vote They are also far too few to counter what Biden needs to catch up This is another demographic that is heavily oversampled in media polls

Latest Poll Says The Economy Is Finally Winning The Most Important Issue To Motivate Voters, Ahead Of COVID-19 On The Economic Question, Trump Outpaces Biden In Polls The Scenario  » better off than four years ago  » pays big dividends for Trump Biden regrets the day he attacked the oil industry and fracking – bye, bye, rustbelt

Media bias and Americans’ disapproval of press conduct will help tip the path of decline for undecided Trump voters The DEM party platform adopts certain socialist agendas, ends up influencing enough voters, who usually vote DEM, to get to the vote, or Biden’s worst nightmare, they vote Trump

Again, I warn, the events determining this election are still happening and will continue until the final ballots are tabled. What other kind of finish do you expect for one of the most bizarre years of our life – 2020

Postscript: By the way, the NJ’s mail-in vote took the biggest advantage of DEMS in this state – GOTV If you’re a state heavily leaning towards Biden, you just want to have a DEMS stake and vote If there is ever a problem that arises against the DEMS that ticks Independents or Republicans never Trump, who had no intention of going to the polls to vote, be careful [The breaking of the scandal of Biden & His might be such a topic] The postal ballot, distributed to voters the DEMS might not want to participate in, is ammunition on their opposition’s knees In traditional elections, a political party usually strategizes to the flow of votes in a state where it has an electoral advantage Mail-in ballots take this strategy off the table

In the last primary 10% of the ballots were rejected If this continues, the majority of the rejected votes in November will be Democratic ballots Remember that only questionable signatures give a voter the opportunity to revoke Other technical problems, such as not inserting votes in envelopes and leaving the envelopes unsealed, result in the rejection of the ballot; without that voter never knowing that their vote doesn’t count A problem with the postal voting process that needs to be seriously resolved

Louis Manzo is a former member of the New Jersey State Assembly who has served on the Assembly’s health, economic development, and environment committees

Former Chief of Jersey City Health Division & Director of Hudson County Public and Environmental Health Division

Traditionally Published American Author Published works include bio, Ruthless Ambition: The Rise and Fall of Chris Christie; and the novel, An Irish Lullaby, on occasion, a content contributor to various news and sports blogs Regular guest on Connecticut’s morning radio show, The Phil Mikan Show [WLIS 1420 AM & WMRD 1150 AM]

The independent factor (NPA) is an important variable that you haven’t explained much in Florida, where I live, 27% are NPA There is less transparency in this segment

NPAs tend to vote with a lower turnout, were more likely to vote a third candidate (Johnson, Nader, Stein) and / or vote in response to a current administration

In 2018, Sarasota (which has 12,000 more red voters than blue) elected a blue MP because the NPA FL vote will be decided by the NPA

Another thing you didn’t consider is the decisive effect that Stein & Johnson played in Trump’s victory in 2016 We are now seeing less than 1% of third party candidates voting

The Hunter Biden scandal went nowhere and today was shot down by none other than Putin himself You overestimate Trump’s momentum and put poll consistency aside for six months You are obviously infatuated with GOP like Trump’s beloved Rassmussen and you walk away from the end predicting GOP control over the Senate and the abrupt shrinking of the House COVID is a far more vital issue than you seem to admit Gatherings don’t vote and early voting was designed for record-breaking bravado With all due respect, your analysis seems to tell us who you WANT to win rather than who will win Best wishes

I’m not sure I approve of your insistence on ‘hidden’ Trump voters, I read an interesting article on how pollsters handled the consequences of the 2016 poll by trying to correct errors that could to give incorrect data And the pearl on ‘socialism’ seems to be in the vein of conservative media fear that we see in GOP campaigns; I don’t think it does much other than solidify the president’s base and alienate suburban voters, like many in the NJ who rejected the GOP in 2018.But overall an interesting piece, I would have loved to hear your screenings for our races at the convention but I’ll take what I can get Thanks!

2020 Presidential Polls

World News – United States – The 2020 Presidential Election: Final Analysis and Projections – Insider NJ



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