World News – United States – MLB 2020 Playoffs: Why It Could Be The Craziest Playoffs Ever

This will be a Major League Baseball postseason unlike anything we’ve seen before: 16 teams, no fans, played in neutral venues after the first round of the playoffs of the MLB with a World Series in a new stadium that most players have never seen hosted by a franchise that has never won a championship

A friend of mine who lives in Chicago told me about a potential World Series game: « If it was the Cubs-White Sox playing in the suburbs of Dallas, I would throw up »

I get the feeling, but that’s what we got We will crown a champion, even in these less than ideal circumstances Los Angeles Dodgers enter as favorites after winning their eighth straight Division title Winning is tough enough – for the 20th year in a row there won’t be a repeat champion – but now the Dodgers and everyone else will face another hurdle: a best-of-three wild card round

What does this mean? A large team like the Dodgers – they have a 50-race race differential better than any other team – are more likely to get angry in a short series than in a longer one. The Dodgers don’t lose a lot of playoffs – they’ve only lost one all season, to the under-500 Rockies – but it all happens in a three-game set, especially when you’re only up against the best. team pitchers We wondered how much the odds of winning the World Series would change for a team like the Dodgers With the help of ESPN Stats & Information, we used historical data based on a team’s points scored and allowed against the league average, and estimated odds for each playoff series since 1998

Here’s how the new playoff format changes the odds of winning the World Series for a generic seed:

A non-typical 1 seed sees its chances drop 105% It is more difficult to win four sets than three Les Nos Seeds 4 and 5 actually see their chances increase, since they no longer have to play the game of wild card to a game

For the 2020 Dodgers, we estimate their odds of winning the World Series will drop to 316% in the 2020 format As good as they are, their odds don’t match the historical average for a seed as they should face a strong Padres team in the wild card round, then a strong Braves team in the National League Championship Series If there’s any consolation for Dodgers fans, we’ve seen some great teams succeed in recent playoffs, with the 2016 Cubs, 2017 Astros and 2018 Red Sox winning all of the World Series after winning over 100 games. in regular season The Dodgers’ 60-game record of 43-17 is projected for a remarkable 116 of 162 wins

Interestingly, if we compare the Dodgers to a hypothetical 16-team format for the last 10 World Series winners, their odds change even more than those of any of those teams:

The 2014 Giants and 2019 Nationals were wild card teams, so we would project their chances of improving in a 16-team format The 2013 Red Sox should have played a good No 8 seeded in the wild round -card to the Orioles or the Yankees, who both finished 85-77 this season

So good luck to the Dodgers They have a formidable squad – and a tough road to end their World Series drought Indeed, it’s been eight incredible seasons with eight consecutive NL West titles and a 596 winning percentage Few teams are this good this long without winning a title, but here are a few other eight-year races that haven’t resulted in a single title:

• Yankees, 2001-2008 (599): It doesn’t stand out as they booked it with championships in 2000 and 2009, but they have won 100 games three times and reached two World Series

• Athletics, 1999-2006 (580): The Moneyball A lost four consecutive division series from 2001 to 2004, then the 2006 ALCS to the Tigers

• Braves, 1996-2003 (611): After winning the World Series in 1995, the Braves would win 10 more NL East titles in a row, including five 100-game seasons, without winning another title

• Mariners, 1995-2002 (555): Griffey, Johnson, Edgar, A-Rod, Ichiro, Buhner, Moyer and not even a World Series appearance

• Indians, 1994-2001 (585): On several occasions their roster included Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Albert Belle, Kenny Lofton, Roberto Alomar and Juan Gonzalez, but they lost the 1995 World Series to the Braves and the heartbreaking 1997 World Series against the Marlins

• Orioles, 1971-1979 (581): They won in 1970, but Earl Weaver spent the rest of his managerial career chasing a second title without ever getting one

• Giants, 1961-68 (568): They had the best percentage of wins in the majors over this period and four Hall of Famers (Willie Mays, Juan Marichal, Gaylord Perry, Orlando Cepeda) but did not reach only one World Series

• Dodgers, 1947-1954 (611): After losing to the Yankees in 1947, 1949, 1952 and 1953, they finally beat them in 1955, the team’s only title in Brooklyn

The current Dodgers have the best winning percentage in the past eight seasons, but the No. 2 team might surprise you: the Cleveland Indians, at 564 This is their fifth playoff appearance in eight seasons and their drought in the World Series is even longer than that of the Dodgers, until 1948 A Dodgers-Indians World Series? It will work

Aside from the 16-team format, this is the other dramatic change in this year’s playoffs: the wild-card series will feature three games in three days; the divisional series will be five games in five days instead of five in seven; and the league championship series will be seven games in seven days instead of seven in nine The World Series then returns to the traditional format without days after Games 2 and 5

With new faces like the White Sox and Padres in the expanded playoff mix, the possibilities for the Fall Classic are almost endless Here are the showdowns we’d love (or hate) David Schoenfield

There will be plenty of free time between the wildcard round and the division series as there will be no games on Saturday and Sunday, but the condensed nature of the LDS and LCS will put additional pressure on the pitchers in these two rounds and force managers to deepen their staffs

Think how the Nationals made it work last season They basically relied on just six playoff pitchers: starters Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez, and relievers Sean Doolittle and Daniel Hudson Those six pitchers made up 83% of Nationals playoff innings versus 58% regular season.The Red Sox deployed a similar strategy in 2018, with starters appearing in relief and their first six pitchers making up 75% of their playoff innings.

Without the extra days off this won’t work in 2020 – or, if managers try to load innings on their best pitchers, it will mean beginners will take a short rest and lifters will appear several days off. after In the last five playoffs, the pitchers have made 41 starts with a short rest – but 22 of them came after a relief appearance and five more had extenuating circumstances such as a short outing in the previous start. launcher So there have only been 14 real short-lived starts in the last five playoffs and only one pitcher made more than one in a single playoff, Corey Kluber with the Indians in 2016, when he started ALCS Game 4, then World Series Games 4 and 7 Even this situation was somewhat necessitated when Cleveland’s rotation was hammered with injuries, forcing manager Terry Francona’s hand

In other words, don’t expect a lot of starts on a short break What does the condensed schedule mean? This means that a starter who starts Game 1 of the Division Series should start Game 5 on a short rest. If he starts the first game of the league championship series, he would not be at full rest until the sixth game. That means more fourth and fifth starters, more bullpen games like we’ve seen in the regular season, and more relievers pitching two and three days in a row. This could mean more points scored As Jeff Passan recently wrote, « Bold Prediction: By the end of the playoffs, teams will average at least five points per game. For context, the last playoff average was 403, this regular season average is 465 and just seven times in the live ball era, the sport has seen more than five runs per game in a full season.

Dodgers: They have five good starting pitchers at Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and Julio Urias Buehler have the worst group ERA at 344 On top of that they have a deep box They are the favorites for a reason

Indians: Even after trading Mike Clevinger, they still have Shane Bieber, Carlos Carrasco, Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale and rookie Triston McKenzie

Athletics: The rotation was only the middle of the field, but they had the best field in the regular season Look for Bob Melvin to shorten games with quick hooks and rely heavily on his relievers

Braves: Max Fried led 7-0 with a 225 ERA and rookie Ian Anderson had a 195 ERA in six starts, but the rest of the rotation was so bad the Braves still finished with the third worst ERA rotation in the majors In fact, out of the last 12 rotations, they were the only team to advance to the playoffs

Yankees: The rotation has concerns after Gerrit Cole, Masahiro Tanaka and JUNE Happ, and the reliever box has not been as deep or as dominant (22nd in ERA) as in previous seasons

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Cubs: Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks are a great double at the top of the rotation, but they’ll have to hope Jon Lester finds his old October magic and a thin reliever pen holds up

The Padres and the White Sox are back in the playoffs – the Padres for the first time since 2006, the White Sox for the first time since 2008 So it’s fun, but what’s even more fun is is that these are rosters filled with exciting young players, led by San Diego sophomore sensation Fernando Tatis Jr The White Sox feature rookie center-back Luis Robert – he collapsed mightily in September after hitting nine home runs in August, but is expected to win a golden glove – and second-year hitter Eloy Jimenez, the second baseman rookie Nick Madrigal and dynamic Tim Anderson

Additionally, despite their relative youth, the Padres also have several players with playoff experience – Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado, Tommy Pham and Mitch Moreland have all appeared in multiple playoffs.

Fernando Tatis Jr and the Padres are the talk of baseball in 2020 Will their summer rise lead to October glory? Machado on the rise of Padres, his great season « The joy of Tatis Jr » | Tatis Jr or the trout? « 

Beyond those two, there’s another team with a young roster to look out for as well – the Blue Jays, with sophomores Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Cavan Biggio They actually have the youngest formation of majors according to weighted playing time, with an average age of 25 years9; the Padres were tied for third youngest at 26, 6 the White Sox finished ninth at 276 And the Blue Jays are the first team to advance to the playoffs without a single player with 10 years of experience in the major leagues

Is youth a factor in the playoffs or not? With the exception of the 2016 Cubs, the rosters of recent champions are older than what we see from the Blue Jays or the Padres:

Nationals 2019: 288 (24th)
The Red Sox 2018: 277 (12th)
Astros 2017: 288 (23rd)
Cubs 2016: 274 (fifth)
Royals 2015: 291 (26th)

The last World Series champion with a roster as young as San Diego or Toronto was the 1969 Mets, with an average age of 260-year-old, who placed second youngest in the majors that year The Blue Jays are obviously a long shot due to a shaky pitching staff, but that doesn’t mean the Padres won’t win, because it ‘is a very good formation which placed third in the majors in points behind the Braves and the Dodgers Perhaps the good news for Padres fans is that while they don’t win it all, it won’t be just 14 years before their next playoff appearance.

While the first round in particular will look something like the first round of the NCAA tournament, I’m not necessarily sure we want to see a Team 500-ish go all the way if there’s a Cinderella are the Marlins – who, I remind you, have never won a division title in their history and have never lost a playoff series. They were 57-105 last year and their season is almost over after a COVID outbreak three games into the season Purists will claim – rightly so, in my opinion – that the beauty of baseball is proven over 162 games just for get the playoffs Now a mediocre team could win it all But here’s a reminder that we’ve had Cinderella teams before:

• 1987 Twins: They finished 85-77, which would have been good for only fifth in the AL East, and they were in fact outclassed this season (the only World Series champion to be outclassed). ) But they were unbeatable in the Metrodome and they upset the Tigers in the ALCS and then the Cardinals in the World Series

• 2003 Marlins: They slipped into the playoffs as a 91-win wild card, but as the 101-win Braves and 88-win Cubs clash in the NLDS, the Marlins have to first had to defeat the 100 Giants wins, then the Cubs, then the Yankees 101 winners

• 2006 Cardinals: They finished just 83-78, the worst record ever for a World Series champion and just the 13th best record of the season In the playoffs, they beat the Padres to 88 wins , the Mets to 97 wins and the Tigers to 95 wins

• Giants 2014: NL’s fifth seed with 88 wins, a series of upsets meant they only had to beat the Royals to 89 World Series wins

• 2019 Nationals: They won 93 games – tied for eighth overall – but beat the 106 Dodgers and 107-won Astros along the way to feel like a worthy champion

1 Clayton Kershaw: Since the expanded MLB playoff format began in 1995, only 13 players in position and five pitchers have racked up more WARs than Kershaw All pitchers won a world series Among the positional players only Barry Bonds, Adrian Beltre, Mike Trout and Jim Thome have never won a title (or did not win, in Trout’s case) So, yes , one of the great players of the last 25 years, Kershaw is due

Here’s how a heated discussion with his pitching coach and some advice from Trevor Bauer helped the Cubs right back to their best formJesse Rogers ”

2 Droughts: 2 Droughts We mentioned Cleveland, without a World Series title since 1948 The Padres have never won a title Nor the Brewers The Marlins are in the playoffs for the first time since 2003 The Rays are a franchise more young, but they never won It’s been at least 30 years for the Reds, A’s and Dodgers The Twins haven’t been in the World Series since 1991, the Blue Jays since 1993

3 Speaking of Billy Beane: It’s kind of weird that a non-player is the face of an organization, but that’s kind of the case with Beane He’s been running baseball operations for A’s ever since. 1998 and this is his 11th playoff appearance He’s still looking for his first World Series appearance

4 Sixteen consecutive playoff losses: this one is hard to believe Coming back to game two of the 2004 ALDS, the Twins are 0-16 in the playoffs. Thirteen of those losses came against the Yankees

5 Dusty Baker and the Redemption of the Astros: The Houston manager is 71 He is 15th on the all-time winning list and 13 of those before him are in the Hall of Fame, and 14th is Bruce Bochy, will come in But Baker will likely need a World Series title to get elected If so, it will come after the Astros fight for the playoffs and they’ll be without an injured Justin Verlander Will the offense come to life after struggling all season?

6 Home runs and strikeouts: League batting average fell to 245 – even without pitchers hitting – lowest score since 1972 Home runs were hit at the second-highest rate of all time, behind only 2019 Outs per game actually fell after 14 consecutive seasons of increases (but were still second all-time) So who hits the most homers? The Dodgers, Braves, White Sox, Twins, Yankees and Padres The Twins, Indians White Sox and Braves allowed at least The Indians and Reds were the best at knocking out hitters while the Rays were the best in the AL The Rays also hit more often while the Astros were the best not to hit Will we see the playoffs with the best scores predicted by Passan or a series of games with low scores and with high play-offs?

7 Shane Bieber: Speaking of strikeouts, the Indian ace drew in 411% of the hitters he’s faced, a record for a starting pitcher if you want to think of it as a full season hitters record. hitting 167 against him He certainly feels like the most likely starter to appear in Madison Bumgarner 2014, although, as noted, the timing makes it harder for a pitcher to dominate a series. Still, it’s possible that Bieber’s playoffs might look like this:

• Tuesday, Sep 29: Game 1 of ALWC
• Monday, October 5: ALDS Game 1
• Friday, October 9: ALDS Game 5 on a short rest
• Wednesday, October 14: Game 4 of the ALCS
• Saturday, October 17: Game 7 of the ALCS in relief
• Tuesday, October 20: Game 1 of the World Series
• Sunday, October 25: Game 5 of the World Series
• Wednesday, October 28: Embossed World Series Match 7

8 Freddie Freeman: Really, the entire Braves Freeman offense is one of the nicest, friendliest players in the majorsHe could win the NL MVP award and this could be his postseason to shine He is quietly building a Hall of Fame career and he’s had his best season Maybe the Braves’ starting pitch is shaky, but they’ve got a good pen and they absolutely crush baseball

9 Closers: Many teams have had issues here in the regular season, even playoff teams Look for late inning comebacks and spectacular home runs (and remember extra innings are for regular baseball, no runner-up rule) The team to watch here is the Rays: twelve different relievers have made a stoppage In the playoffs, Kevin Cash will use any reliever at all times

10 The Yankees: Wait, we barely mentioned the Yankees and now we’re at the end of our playoff preview.Well Cole is another starting pitcher who could dominate the playoffs Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are back in line-up Luke Voit is new Lou Gehrig DJ LeMahieu hits like Joe DiMaggio It’s been 11 long, miserable years of suffering for Yankees fans since their last World Series in 2009 Will this be the year?

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