World News – United States – With weak Hispanic voters, Biden roams Texas


Big Democratic gains among white commuters suggest Republicans risk ending up in Congressional and State House elections, our poll shows

President Trump maintains a narrow lead in Texas, according to a New York Times / Siena College poll on Monday, as he faces a rebellion in the once-overwhelmingly Republican suburb of the state, but survives with the support from an unlikely ally, Hispanic voters

Overall, M Trump leads Joe Biden, 47% to 43%, among likely voters The majority of talks were conducted before the final presidential debate on Thursday In the Senate race, incumbent Republican President John Cornyn holds a larger lead, 48- 38, on the democrat, MJ Hégar

A Democratic victory in Texas would be a historic moment in US electoral politics, heralding the end of decades of Republican rule in the nation’s second largest state and representing a decisive repudiation of the Trump presidency Polls have shown a competitive race in Texas any cycle, but the Biden campaign has made limited efforts to challenge the state

The Republican grip on Texas rapidly deteriorated during Trump’s time, as a Democratic breakthrough in the suburbs endangered more than a third of the Republican delegation in Congress and Republican control of the State House

The results suggest Republicans face catastrophic downside risk, even though Mr. Trump wins Mr. Biden leads him by five percentage points, from 48% to 43%, in the 12 predominantly suburban congressional districts that the political report Cook found competitive These districts voted for president by eight points in 2016

In these districts, Republicans face a combination of rapid demographic shifts and previously unthinkable Democratic gains among college-educated white voters Mr. Trump leads M Biden by just two points among white college graduates in those districts, even though they say they supported Mr. Trump by 24 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016

Even those who have long embraced the Democratic dream of a “blue Texas,” fueled by the mobilization of the state’s growing Latin American population, probably never would have imagined such staggering democratic gains in regions once solidly republican Still, poll suggests Hispanic voters may well be the group that keeps the Red State alive a bit longer

Mister Biden has a lead of just 57% to 34% in that group, a bit below most estimates by Ms. Clinton’s support among Hispanic voters four years ago The result largely follows national surveys , who showed that M Trump improves among Hispanic voters from his position in 2016 Likewise, Hispanic voters in the Times / Siena poll say they support Clinton by a 60% to 29% margin

Hispanic voters are hard to measure in any state, and Texas is no exception In 2018, the Times / Siena polls generally underestimated the turnout of Hispanics and their support for Democrats in Texas So far this cycle, polls have varied a lot on M Trump is part of the group in Texas, with a recent Quinnipiac investigation showing M Biden ahead of just eight points, 51-43, while a Dallas Morning News / UT Tyler Texas poll showed him a much wider lead, 67-20

The limited advertising spend of the Biden campaign so far has focused on the media markets of El Paso and San Antonio, where Hispanic voters make up a particularly large portion of the electorate. This may suggest that the Biden campaign sees Hispanic voters as one of its best and most profitable opportunities to improve his position in the state.

Mr. Trump also shows modest but significant strength among black voters, who support Mr. Biden by a margin of 78% to 12% Black respondents to the survey said they voted for Mrs. Clinton over Mr. Trump by a slightly larger margin, 82-8, in 2016

And while M Biden made significant gains among rural white voters without a college degree elsewhere in the country, Times / Siena survey found this to be not the case in Texas Overall, white rural voters support M Trump, 80-15, reflecting the president’s resilience among white voters in Times / Siena polls in the Deep South, even as Mr. Biden makes significant inroads among white voters on northern battlefields

Accordingly, M Biden has not improved over Ms. Clinton’s performance outside of well-educated, competitive and fast-paced districts, Times / Siena m Trump survey retains almost all of his strength among Hispanic working class voters , black and white which prevail outside the affluent districts of the state

The poll offered mixed news to Democrats in their hopes of turning the electorate in their favor, even though early voting already makes it clear that the 2020 Texas electorate will be unlike any before

With one more week of early voting and polling day ahead, more than seven million voters have already voted in the state, which is over 80% of the total turnout there was. four years The state has not been vigorously contested at the presidential level for decades, leaving analysts with even more uncertainty about the eventual electorate than elsewhere

No investigator or analyst can be reasonably sure what the final Texas electorate will look like, given that a significant deviation from past participation patterns is almost inevitable.Nevertheless, the Times / Siena poll offers a possible image: a participation rate approaching 12 million, without neither M Neither Biden nor Mr Trump claiming a clear advantage because of the higher turnout, but still with a lower turnout among Hispanic voters than non-Hispanic voters

The poll reveals that Mr. Biden holds a seven-point lead among half of the likely electorate who had already voted on Friday, according to state records compiled by L2, a non-partisan data provider.These voters are older and whiter than the electorate as a whole, and more participated in a recent Republican primary than a Democratic primary.But, like early voters elsewhere in the country, they appear more supportive of Mr. Biden than their demographics suggest

The president counts with a 17-point lead among voters who did not surrender on Friday, including an even wider advantage of 29 points among those who say they are almost certain to vote

Mr Biden fails to keep pace on election day, poll finds, in part because the survey sees relatively little evidence that the soaring turnout will extend to Latino voters , and that even if it were, such an increase would benefit Mr. More than you might expect

Overall, 66% of registered Hispanic voters say they have voted or are almost certain to vote, compared to 83% of non-Hispanic whites and 77% of non-Hispanic blacks

Perhaps surprisingly, the Hispanic voters most likely to stay home are Hispanic voters most likely to support M Trump Or, if you prefer: Mr. Biden fares better among Latino voters who say they will vote Mr. Biden leads, 61 to 30, among Hispanic voters who say they have already voted or are « almost certain » to vote. do it, while M Trump and Mr Les Biden are effectively tied among those less likely Mr Biden has an even wider 73-20 lead among Hispanic voters who say they have already voted As a result, a higher Latino turnout does little to help support M Biden, although this group of low-turnout voters identified as Democrats rather than Republican by a 16-point margin

Low turnout Hispanic voters in Texas are among the hardest to reach voters in the country for pollsters It’s even more difficult to guarantee a representative sample of the group in a state like Texas where voters don’t not register with a party; party registration can be used to secure the right number of Democrats and Republicans We cannot rule out the possibility that the ballot failed to reach the most Democratic of these voters

Mr Biden could also succeed in mobilizing elements of Democratic tendency in this group, as already appears to be happening during the early vote.He can also hope that undecided and low-turnout Latino voters will break with the Democrats in the home stretch, as they seemed to do two years ago

Presidential Polls 2020

World News – United States – With Weak Hispanic Voters, Biden Trails in Texas



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